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If the development of corona cases continues at its current level, the domestic tourism summer will

Updated: Oct 10, 2022

If the development of corona cases continues at its current level, the domestic tourism summer will become a record

In the travel agency industry, the drop is the largest

Of the tourism-earning industries, the least affected by the corona pandemic is retail, which, after a small slump at the beginning of the pandemic, has continued to grow relatively steadily throughout the pandemic. Looking at corporate VAT settlements, the travel agency sector, which was growing strongly before the pandemic, has been the hardest hit by the pandemic. While in the early 2020s, sales in the travel agency industry grew by more than 20 percent, after the pandemic began, sales fell by more than 50 percent from a year ago.

In the accommodation and leisure industries, the percentage decline in turnover at the beginning of the pandemic was at the same level as in the travel agency sector, but the decline did not continue as strongly throughout the rest of the year. However, this analysis does not take into account the changes in air traffic turnover, as international air transport is not subject to VAT. Finnair's passenger traffic revenues in 2020 fell by almost 79 per cent from the previous year.

The number of foreign flights and arrivals at accommodation establishments fell at the same pace as the pandemic began

The number of passengers on international flights decreased by 99 per cent and the number of foreigners arriving at registered accommodation establishments decreased by 98 per cent in April 2020 from a year ago. The number of domestic overnight stays in accommodation establishments decreased by “only” 91 per cent in April, and in July the number of domestic tourists even increased slightly in Finland, when people could not travel abroad. However, the value of accommodation sales in registered accommodation establishments also decreased in July by about 20 per cent due to a decrease in foreign tourists, lower average prices and shorter delays.

Only in unregistered housing and cottage rentals did sales increase after the onset of the interest rate pandemic. The popularity of unregistered accommodation during a pandemic is explained by the safety-consciousness of tourists. In a private apartment or rental cottage, the risk of infection from other travelers is lower than in registered accommodation establishments. In unregistered accommodation, the decline in domestic tourism also began to show in December 2020 as a decline in accommodation sales.

If the current trend continues in the development of the number of cases of the disease, the domestic tourism summer will become a record

Willingness to travel during the corona pandemic has been investigated in our Domestic Tourism study with the help of the following statements:

  • I don't want to travel domestic because of the covid-19

  • I don't want to travel abroad because of the covid-19

Based on the responses, an index has been calculated that tells whether there are more people who want to travel than those who do not want to travel (positive index) or vice versa (negative index). Interviews are conducted 250 times a week, allowing the willingness to travel to be monitored in real time.

Figure shows how the index of willingness to travel in the home country turned negative in week 36, when the number of cases exceeded 200 cases per week for the first time. The willingness to travel abroad index has remained negative throughout the pandemic. Domestic willingness to travel correlates very strongly (-0.845) with the number of cases. The willingness to travel abroad also correlates, although not as strongly (-0.537) with the number of cases of the disease.

In May, the number of cases of the disease has still been more than 1,000 per week, but if the trend continues in line with last week, less than 200 cases a week will be reached before midsummer. This is likely to accelerate to new record highs in the domestic tourist summer in terms of domestic tourist numbers.

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